Applied Statistic And Decision Analysis
Applied statistic and decision analysis for public policy
13/1

Outcome
Prepare to be effective policy maker
Use proper statistical method for helping research
Structure
Excell, spss, any support tools
Lectures
Discussion
Assignment
Intro
Basic statistical analysis
Logic of statistical inference, estimation, testing hypotheses
Basic bivariate st analysis
Multivariate st analysis
Special topic: mdgs, sdgs, growth, poverty, inequality, employment etc
Statistic and policymaker
Beware with statistic
Wrong data will mislead
We have to be careful in reading data statistic
Measuring is not difficult
Difficult to read and come to decision
Misreading statistic could misconduct the research
Statistic 'lies'
How to read the info
Even data come from institution
We have to compare with reality
Sometimes there's conflict interest
Intro
Meaning
Type
Advantage
Uses, importance
Statistic= eye opener
Give some critical point for policy maker
Meet data in spesific way
Get insight, daiĺy observation
Without good statistics, the development process is blind. Policýmakers can't learn from their mistakes and the public can't hold them accountable
Statistic are the eyes of the policymaker - keith muhakanizi
Definition statistic:
Science of learning from making sense out of data
Theory and methods of extracting info from observational data
Science of collecting, analyzing, inferring proportions
Meaning:
Aggregate quantitative info
GDP
GNP
Economic growth
Poverty index
Employment
Inequality
Agricultural st
Trade st
Transport st
By subject:
Economic st
Social st
Population st
Science of collecting, analysing, making inference from data
How to use data for research
Advantage
Hv great power to Describe systematically a body of info
Can elucidate the main tendencies as well as the spread of the data about them. In sample population
Descriptive function
Subjecting intuitive ideas how process
Foremost method for drawing an accurate inference
Help public manager become much more discerning consumer of quantitative info
Need skill to evaluate
Check data validity
Examining the methods of getting the data
Even responden is same, but different method, it will be different result
A lot of instruments to examine data
Primary data ~ validity test
How if we can't get valid data
Crosscheck the respondent. Observing the variables,choose ones
Or just remove others
Discussion, briefing w/ the govt agency to examine
Spss not free
Excel is welcome
Type:
Descriptive
Describe numbers
Using graphic
Frequency
Central of tendency
Dispersion
Ex: gallup poll found 49% of people in survey knew the name of presieny
In average, 9 problem of 100 machines during 2018
Type: inferential st
Decision, estimate, prediction, generalization about population, based on sample
Use of quantitative techniques to generalize from a sample
Ex: the city fathers of pittsburgh would like to know how pleased pittsburgh citizens
N: 350.000 n:100
Ex: GE washing machine owners would like to estimate the sales number at 2020

Local govt hv more detail data
Central govt for macro data
Adopt the variables from previous data
Measure IPM
If data is invaĺid
Simple solution> Add more samples
Minimum sample for research
Or conduct post enumeration survey
Same respondent, different questioners
Uses in PP
Problem Identification
Describe phenomenon
Planning: initiation and formulation
Decision: distribution or incidence?
We can switch decision
Help policy selection
Help Policy design and implementation
Help monitoring and evaluation
Pay attention
Data collection
type
Source
Sampling design
Method
Proxedure
Instrument
QC
Data processing
Variable
Data coding and validation
Entry
Tabulation
Procedure
Software
QC
Data analysis
Method
Tech
Interpretation
Visualitation
Software
QC
Stat as tools
Effective decision making requires evidence based approach that work together w/ analytical skill n political support
Policy maker must be equipped w/ right skill to discern between evidence which is reliable n useful
Identify gap to ensure stat align n functioning
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