Applied Statistic And Decision Analysis

Applied Statistic And Decision Analysis

Applied statistic and decision analysis for public policy

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Key statistical methods Basic mathematics and descriptive statistics Set to the minimum since the objective is the empirical and practical use

Outcome Prepare to be effective policy maker Use proper statistical method for helping research Structure Excell, spss, any support tools Lectures Discussion Assignment

Intro Basic statistical analysis Logic of statistical inference, estimation, testing hypotheses Basic bivariate st analysis Multivariate st analysis Special topic: mdgs, sdgs, growth, poverty, inequality, employment etc

Statistic and policymaker Beware with statistic Wrong data will mislead We have to be careful in reading data statistic Measuring is not difficult Difficult to read and come to decision Misreading statistic could misconduct the research Statistic 'lies' How to read the info

Even data come from institution We have to compare with reality Sometimes there's conflict interest Intro Meaning Type Advantage Uses, importance Statistic= eye opener Give some critical point for policy maker Meet data in spesific way Get insight, daiĺy observation

Without good statistics, the development process is blind. Policýmakers can't learn from their mistakes and the public can't hold them accountable Statistic are the eyes of the policymaker - keith muhakanizi

Definition statistic: Science of learning from making sense out of data Theory and methods of extracting info from observational data Science of collecting, analyzing, inferring proportions

Meaning: Aggregate quantitative info GDP GNP Economic growth Poverty index Employment Inequality Agricultural st Trade st Transport st

By subject: Economic st Social st Population st Science of collecting, analysing, making inference from data How to use data for research

Advantage Hv great power to Describe systematically a body of info Can elucidate the main tendencies as well as the spread of the data about them. In sample population Descriptive function Subjecting intuitive ideas how process Foremost method for drawing an accurate inference

Help public manager become much more discerning consumer of quantitative info Need skill to evaluate Check data validity Examining the methods of getting the data Even responden is same, but different method, it will be different result

A lot of instruments to examine data Primary data ~ validity test How if we can't get valid data Crosscheck the respondent. Observing the variables,choose ones Or just remove others Discussion, briefing w/ the govt agency to examine Spss not free Excel is welcome

Type: Descriptive Describe numbers Using graphic Frequency Central of tendency Dispersion Ex: gallup poll found 49% of people in survey knew the name of presieny In average, 9 problem of 100 machines during 2018

Type: inferential st Decision, estimate, prediction, generalization about population, based on sample Use of quantitative techniques to generalize from a sample

Ex: the city fathers of pittsburgh would like to know how pleased pittsburgh citizens N: 350.000 n:100 Ex: GE washing machine owners would like to estimate the sales number at 2020

Local govt hv more detail data Central govt for macro data Adopt the variables from previous data Measure IPM If data is invaĺid Simple solution> Add more samples Minimum sample for research Or conduct post enumeration survey Same respondent, different questioners

Uses in PP Problem Identification Describe phenomenon Planning: initiation and formulation Decision: distribution or incidence? We can switch decision Help policy selection Help Policy design and implementation

Help monitoring and evaluation Pay attention Data collection type Source Sampling design Method Proxedure Instrument QC

Data processing Variable Data coding and validation Entry Tabulation Procedure Software QC Data analysis Method Tech Interpretation Visualitation Software QC

Stat as tools Effective decision making requires evidence based approach that work together w/ analytical skill n political support Policy maker must be equipped w/ right skill to discern between evidence which is reliable n useful Identify gap to ensure stat align n functioning